Thoughts on the 50-Megaton Bomb .sx BERTRAND RUSSELL .sx All friends of peace have been profoundly shocked and discouraged by the Soviet government's resumption of tests culminating in the explosion of the 50-megaton bomb .sx Mr Krushchev maintains that all this is done with a view to preserving peace .sx This , of course , is nonsense .sx But it is much to be feared that the West will react by very similar nonsense .sx On 22 October , four members of the Committee of 100 , of whom I was one , delivered a statement signed by the Rev. Michael Scott and myself at the Soviet embassy protesting against the explosion of the most powerful nuclear weapon yet tested .sx Somewhat to my surprise , I received a long answer to this statement from Mr Krushchev , very similar to the letter from him to certain Labour MPs which was published on 31 October .sx The statement to me contains the usual mixture of the truth and falsehood which we have learnt to expect from statesmen of either side .sx Its criticisms of the West are , to a considerable extent , justified .sx Its defence of the Soviet government is almost entirely unjustified .sx Mr Krushchev deplores , I think rightly , the West's tardiness in agreeing to negotiations about Berlin .sx He omits to mention that the Russian proposals for solving the Berlin question would involve so great a gain to the Russian side that the West could not be expected to agree .sx He omits , also , to emphasise that , from the first , the Russian proposals have been backed by military threats .sx He points out , I think truly , that in a nuclear war Britain would suffer more than either America or Russia , but he is wrong in thinking that this sort of argument promotes pacifism in Britain .sx He says :sx 'We are carrying out experimental blasts and improving our weapons so that mankind may never experience the horrors of nuclear war .sx ' Exactly the same sort of thing is being said in America .sx It is scarcely possible to believe that such sentiments are sincere on either side .sx Each side proceeds on the assumption that itself loves peace , but the other side consists of warmongers .sx Each side proceeds on the assumption that itself possesses infinite courage , but that the other side consists of poltroons who can be frightened by bluster .sx Each side's bluster , in fact , produces bluster on the other side , and brings war nearer .sx If Mr Krushchev really believes that the explosion of his 50-megaton bomb is going to cause a love of peace in the West , he must possess a far smaller knowledge of human nature than it is easy to suppose credible .sx All those of us in the West who are working to prevent a nuclear war are reduced almost to despair by the recent atrocious actions of the Soviet government , while , on the contrary , those in the West who desire a nuclear war are encouraged by every crime and folly of which the Soviet government is guilty .sx Mr Krushchev says :sx 'The source of international tension and the arms race is the policy of the western powers .sx ' This is only half the truth .sx If the matters in dispute between East and West are to be settled without war , they must be settled by negotiation , and in the present temper of both sides negotiation cannot be successful if conducted by the threat of war .sx When Mr Krushchev professes that he wishes to avoid 'the horrors of nuclear war' , he is only half sincere .sx There is something else that he wishes much more , namely the avoidance of the tiniest concession on the part of the Soviet government .sx There is some reason to fear that a correlative feeling exists in the West .sx It cannot , therefore , be said honestly by either side that it considers nuclear war the worst possible disaster .sx The last paragraph of Mr Krushchev's letter advocates general and complete disarmament .sx The United States Information Service has issued a pamphlet called Freedom from War with a foreword by President Kennedy .sx The proposals contained in this pamphlet are admirable .sx So are Mr Krushchev's proposals for general and complete disarmament .sx Since both sides advocate the same thing , it might be thought that it would be brought about , but no one supposes that it will be , because no one supposes that either side sincerely desires it .sx Certainly the explosion of 50-megaton bombs is not the way to bring it about .sx There is a simple test which I should suggest to the statesmen of both East and West :sx 'When you feel inclined to make a pronouncement , ask yourself whether it differs in any way from a pronouncement by the other side .sx You are in the habit of saying that the pronouncements of the other side tend to promote war and , if they seem not to , that is only because they are insincere and hypocritical .sx If your pronouncements and theirs are indistinguishable , can you wonder that they do not find yours convincing ?sx ' If war is to be avoided , both sides will have to cease from finding fault with each other , even when the fault-finding is justified , and will have to abandon the language of threats .sx We shall not be driven to mend our ways by Soviet threats .sx Nor will Russia be driven to mend her ways by threats from our side .sx Threat and counter-threat is not the way to peace .sx At one time Mr Krushchev seemed to be aware of this .sx He has forgotten it , and all friends of Man must be saddened by his decision to march along the road of folly .sx But I have been speaking of what we in the West regard as Mr Krushchev's mistakes .sx We are much less aware of the mistakes made on our own side , though it would be easy to make a formidable list weighing in the total not much less than 50 megatons .sx The United States Air Force Association recently published a statement of its policy which is the most terrifying document I have ever read .sx It leads up to a noble peroration :sx 'Soviet aims are both evil and implacable .sx The people [i .sx e. the American people] are willing to work towards , and fight for if necessary , the elimination of Communism from the world scene .sx Let the issue be joined .sx ' This gives the tone of the whole ferocious document , which amounts to a sentence of death on the human race .sx It presents the aims of the enormous economic power of the armament industry and the warlike ardour of generals and admirals- the aims , in short , of the armament lobby , one of the most powerful of the lobbies that largely determine the actions of Congress .sx The greatest danger that we must face now , in this time of very imminent disaster , is that we should give in to these warmongers of the West as the Russians have shown by their recent actions they have succumbed to the warmongers of the East .sx We must continue to oppose both , to remember that both are guilty of leading us to our present dangerous pass , that both now seem to have the bit in their teeth .sx We must continue to urge the West- since we can influence only the West- to insist upon negotiation with determination to arrive at a peaceful issue , to refuse to answer provocative acts with provocative acts , to refuse , in fact , to go to war .sx Assumptions of American Defence .sx KINGSLEY MARTIN .sx In this article I want to assess , as far as I can , after talks in the White House , the Pentagon and the State Department , the assumptions that lie behind American defence policy .sx On the surface at least , the present regime differs from its predecessor in not thinking about 'containing Communism' or 'rolling back' or 'fighting a crusade' , but in tough , realistic terms about the power struggle between the Soviet Union and the US .sx Whether this makes much real difference in policy I am not sure .sx It may be no more than a change in presentation .sx But it means that ideology comes into conversation only as an element of defence .sx The argument is no longer about a world divided into angels and devils , with 'unmoral' neutrals dithering on the edge of hell .sx Another difference is that in the Kennedy era the generals do not talk about policy in public .sx There is still to be a fight about this which may be important before long , but for the moment military chiefs protest only in private .sx The very impressive Secretary of Defence , Mr McNamara , has everything very firmly under control , and the Pentagon concentrates on making military sense of the troika of France , Germany and Britain which the US is now attempting to drive in harness .sx The first assumption was stated in precise military terms the other day by Mr Gilpatric , the Deputy Secretary of Defence , whose speech , the press was informed , was 'cleared at the highest level' , i.e. vetted by the President .sx The US is stated to be much superior today to the USSR in both nuclear power and the means of delivery .sx In Mr Gilpatric's words , Americans 'have a second strike capability as extensive as what the Soviets can deliver by striking first .sx Therefore we are confident that the Soviets will not provoke a major nuclear conflict .sx ' The second assumption is that a private enterprise shelter policy supported by the administration can so limit the number of civilian deaths in a nuclear war that America would be able to rebuild a civilised and democratic society after it .sx The third assumption is that by building up conventional forces , America can minimise the danger that a nuclear war might begin by accident or misunderstanding or from Soviet failure to realise America's determination to use her nuclear weapons .sx The fourth assumption is that West Germany must at all cost be kept as a permanent ally .sx It is essential to have her agreement about the Berlin settlement , her alliance in a war and her participation in that integrated organisation of the West , which is thought the best hope for western civilisation whether there is a war or not .sx Let me consider these assumptions in order .sx Mr Gilpatric states that America will be able to maintain progressively larger arms expenditure until Russia is 'eventually forced to participate with us in a step-by-step programme to guarantee the peace which so many nations earnestly desire' .sx The present defence budget has reached the colossal figure of $47,000 million .sx Gilpatric did not mention the possibility that one of the motives for Russia's inexcusable and horrifying series of tests is that she intends to continue poisoning the atmosphere until America is forced to accept Russia's programme for 'complete and general disarmament' .sx Whether his estimate of Russia's inferior striking power is correct , I cannot of course say ; one hopes that it is better based than the appreciation that led to the Cuban invasion .sx According to American intelligence reports the number of Soviet intercontinental missiles is not large .sx The Russians , we are told , mainly rely on those of intermediate range , so that America's huge and elaborate system of bomber planes , plus her growing fleet of Polaris submarines , would bring Russia down before she could destroy America's nuclear bases .sx It is a matter of doubt whether this alleged inferiority of striking power or the conflicts within the Communist world , so vividly displayed in the Moscow Communist conference , is responsible for Krushchev's postponement of a date for making a treaty with East Germany .sx Shelter policy is a matter of acute controversy here .sx The administration does not suggest that shelters can prevent huge casualties from blast and fire , though it flatly contradicts the estimate of some experts who hold that the inevitable fires following a nuclear explosion would destroy all life above and below ground for many times the distance of the blast .sx As to the inevitable struggle to crowd the shelters if missiles fall , the only solution appears to be that everyone should have a shelter- which is clearly impossible even if the government stops the supply of bogus shelters , now commercially advertised , and insists on the production of cheap and adequate shelters against nuclear rain .sx