Why the waiting game looks a winner for Major .sx The longer Kinnock stays in opposition the weaker becomes his election appeal .sx by Paul Johnson .sx JOHN MAJOR can retain the option of a November election for another month but , despite yesterday's Gallup poll , the chances are that he will turn it down - and rightly .sx No Prime Minister likes to have to run the full course , though the historical precedents are not so daunting as many pundits think .sx The last Tory leader to do so , the little-fancied Alec Home , very nearly pulled off a surprise victory in 1964 , against a ( then ) immensely impressive opponent , Harold Wilson .sx Had the campaign run another fortnight , Home would have won .sx But the precedent most people have in mind is the calamitous misjudgement of Jim Callaghan , who funked an autumn election in 1978 , ran into the Winter of Discontent and handed Margaret Thatcher a comfortable victory in 1979 .sx Hence in the right conditions Major would be strongly tempted to go in November .sx But the " right conditions " consist , in practice , of four figures :sx inflation has to be at or below 3 per cent , interest rates must be in single figures , unemployment must have peaked and the Tories must have reached and held a lead in the polls of not less than 7 per cent .sx None of these things is likely to happen in the next month ; and for all four to materialise would require something like a miracle .sx The 1992 option has three powerful arguments behind it .sx The first , which weighs particularly heavily with Major himself , is the political impact of the key December negotiations with our European Community partners on monetary union .sx Major believes that if , by some mischance , Labour were to win in November , Neil Kinnock would make a hash of them and come back with an agreement which would be disastrous for Britain .sx Believing he can get a deal which will reduce Tory malcontents to a tiny minority , Major would prefer to have this under his belt before embarking on a campaign in which an argument over Europe would damage only his own party .sx Painful The second argument is more fundamental .sx Elections are nearly always won or lost on the voter's sense of economic wellbeing .sx There is virtual unanimity among the well-informed that the recession has bottomed out and we shall be visibly pulling out of it by late autumn .sx Nonetheless , it has been the deepest and most painful most people can remember .sx The wounds are still open and raw and will take time to heal .sx Many homebuyers have had their flats and houses repossessed or have abandoned them in despair at paying their monthly mortgage bills .sx The notion of a property-owning democracy , the great slogan of the Thatcher years , has turned distinctly sour .sx Most of the people in these two categories voted Tory in 1983 and 1987 .sx They may not now vote Labour .sx But some will turn to the Liberal Democrats .sx Others will abstain .sx It is hard to see any returning to the Tory fold this side of Christmas .sx A third and still expanding group of voters have lost their jobs .sx They include many skilled workers , whom Mrs Thatcher won over from Labour .sx Most are now back in the Labour camp and will remain there until the jobless total begins to decline .sx The economic argument for 1992 is clinched by an important tactical consideration .sx If Major picks November simply because there is a pale glimmer of light on the horizon , he lays himself open to the charge of blatant opportunism - and the far more damaging smear that he is holding a snap election because the dawn is a false one and he fears more bad news this winter .sx Emotional That is an accusation Labour can be expected to hammer home and many will believe it .sx Third , there is the personal argument .sx We must not minimise the forces working against the Government .sx A dozen years is a long time to hold power .sx No modern government has won four consecutive elections .sx Time for a change is a cumulative force of huge emotional importance , not least among millions of young voters who have known nothing but Tory rule since they became aware of politics .sx These negative factors apply , whichever date Major picks , whereas the countervailing personal factor becomes stronger , the more he delays .sx It can be expressed in a simple , five-word equation :sx Major Versus Kinnock Means Major .sx Perhaps the most important factor is Kinnock's failure , in eight years as a Leader of the Opposition , to make himself look like a prime minister .sx The longer he goes on , the less impressive he seems .sx In the last month alone he has lost much ground .sx It is surely significant that , in a recent poll of trades union leaders - who ought to be his strongest supporters - he was rated only seventh in the Shadow Cabinet .sx How can the voters trust a man in whom even the party's stalwarts are losing faith ?sx By contrast , Major's stature and appeal have grown with every month .sx He had a superb summer .sx He looks set for a triumphant party conference .sx If he pulls off a negotiating triumph in December - and he clearly believes he can - this will set the seal on his emergence as a popular prime minister .sx Instinct Major has trumped Kinnock's two strong suits of youth and ordinariness .sx He speaks to and for men and women in the street , where Kinnock speaks only to and for party workers .sx Whereas Kinnock manages to look like a BA cabin steward , you can imagine Major safely piloting the plane .sx He contrives to look and sound as unlike Margaret Thatcher as possible , and this counteracts the time-for-a-change instinct .sx Best of all for the Tories is the feeling that there is plenty more growth in their leader - that the more people see , the more they like .sx That is a decisive argument for giving Major another few , precious months .sx All the same , the choice is not easy and if he rules out November , Major will pass an anxious winter .sx But how much more nailbiting will it be for Kinnock , as he sees his chances slipping away again - and how much stronger the probability that this accident-prone man will trip himself up in the labyrinths of his own verbiage !sx .sx Keith Waterhouse .sx COLUMNIST OF THE YEAR .sx Arnold on the lines .sx AND finally , the railway that's disappearing into its own shunting shed .sx Following a loss of 23,000 passengers a day , British Rail hopes to halt an expected pounds84 million shortfall with wide-ranging cuts including the loss of up to 48 rush-hour commuter trains a day .sx Here from our Bournemouth studio to discuss the implications of that is British Rail's brother-in-law Arnold .sx " Good evening , Arnold .sx " .sx " Good evening Jeremy .sx " .sx " And the first thing concerned commuters will want me to ask , Arnold , is how is your wife Moira ?sx " .sx " Still a martyr to indigestion , Jeremy , but my sister Elaine - you know , the one who married British Rail - has put her on to some blue pills that she has to take instead of meals , so we're hoping they'll do the trick .sx " .sx " And the boys , Arnold ?sx " .sx " Kevin's waiting for his GCSE results and lucky little Rory's gone to stay with his Aunt Noreen in Barbados , would you believe ?sx If you remember , Jeremy , she married one of the water companies so they can well afford a time-share flat .sx " .sx " Now the next thing the disgruntled public is asking , Arnold , is this .sx How does your brother-in-law justify charging more and more for less and less ?sx " .sx " Well , Jeremy , you've got to remember he has an enormous wages bill and it's rising all the time .sx Three hundred and fifty per cent increase last year - and that's only his own salary .sx " .sx " No , I didn't mean your brother-in-law the water company , Arnold , I meant your other brother-in-law British Rail .sx " .sx " Oh , I see , you mean Barry , the one who's married to Elaine .sx He's very well , Jeremy , in fact we had a game of golf only yesterday .sx " .sx " And what did he have to say about British Rail's apparent strategy of trying to cut its losses by getting rid of its passengers ?sx " .sx " Customers , Jeremy .sx Never say passengers , always say customers .sx That's what I've drummed into my brother-in-law and he's never looked back since .sx See , for passengers you've got to provide trains , but for customers you've only got to sell tickets .sx I've said the selfsame thing to my other brother-in-law , Lionel , I tell him , otherwise they'll all be clamouring for water to put in their hosepipes .sx Call them customers and all you have to worry about is sending out the bill .sx " .sx BUT the question remains , Arnold - whenever British Rail is faced with a huge revenue deficiency , it tries to balance its books by putting up fares and reducing the service .sx " .sx " That's not a question , Jeremy , it's a statement .sx You'd better be very careful - I have another sister , Beryl , who happens to be married to the BBC .sx " .sx " Let me put it this way , then , Arnold .sx Can we expect British Rail standards to get worse as more and more customers drop away ?sx " .sx " No way , Jeremy .sx For one thing , fewer customers means less crowded trains - that stands to reason , now doesn't it ?sx And fewer trains leaving the station means fewer trains arriving late - that's another plus .sx Also , if the worst comes to the worst , Harry can always revise the fares structure .sx " .sx " You mean put the fares up again ?sx " .sx " There you go , Jeremy , always looking on the black side .sx Listen , I'll tell you in the strictest confidence what my brother-in-law said over that game of golf yesterday- Arnold , he said , we'll never get it 100 per cent right until we make such a gigantic cock-up of the railways that the Government either has to sell them off or come to the rescue .sx " .sx " So the rundown services are all part of a grand long-term strategy ?sx " .sx " You've got it , Jeremy .sx But will the powers that be listen .sx Of course , you know where the Government made its big mistake , don't you ?sx " .sx " What was that , Arnold ?sx " .sx " It should have married my eldest sister Louise when it had the chance .sx " .sx Poorer Patels .sx JUDGING from yesterday's headlines there seem to be about 12 separate scandals rumbling away in the wake of the BCCI affair .sx This one will run and run .sx There are also some intriguing questions to be answered , such as why do bank paying-in books not carry a Government financial health warning :sx " Deposit protection in case of the bank closing down due to fraud , incompetence or unwise investment is limited to pounds15,000 " - and how on earth did the remote Western Isles council get its fists on pounds23million in the first place ?sx Keith Waterhouse .sx Perfect peace .sx KARL MARX got it ever so slightly wrong when he prophesied the withering away of the state .sx It is Marxism that has withered away - and with it all manner of ideological sideshows .sx One that I shall be rather sad to see fading into the tapestry of history is the dear old CND , the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament , which is now facing hard times and cannot be much longer for this glasnost world .sx All those game old birds with gnarled sticks and pipes and flowing manes , all those earnest young women with baby harnesses bouncing off their bra-less bosoms , all those long-haired young men addressing their girlfriends as " Man" , all those duffel coats and jeans and badges and banners and open-toed sandals and push-chairs and guitars and joints , and all those choruses of " We shall not be moved " .sx The Easter march from Trafalgar Square to Aldermaston - more of a pilgrimage really - became as much a national institution as Derby Day .sx Although it had some pretty cranky spin-offs , notably the Greenham Wimmin , the CND was probably the last protest movement not to resort to violence .sx Scuffles and sit-downs there may have been , but you did not ever see CND supporters heaving bricks at the police .sx The Campaign's heart was in the right place even if its head was in the wrong one .sx And at least - unlike the raucous single-issue lobbies even now filling the void it will leave behind - it could sing .sx